By Beryl Odele
The Federal Government has reeled out the benefits of its economic reforms under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, as well as the potential economic crises the policies prevented, saying available data show significant improvements across key economic indicators.
The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, made this known during a press conference on Tuesday in Abuja, where he presented the government’s economic reform scorecard and counterfactual assessment of what Nigeria’s economy could have looked like if the reforms had not been implemented.
Oyedele said the counterfactual analysis was anchored on economic trends that existed before the reforms, including debt-servicing pressures, declining external reserves and the expansion of Ways and Means financing.
He said, “At the subsidy regime, the multiple exchange rates and unshared Ways and Means financing simply continued on their pre-2023 trajectory.”
According to him, the analysis was not based on assumptions created after the reforms but on trends that were already visible before the policies were introduced.
“The third column is not a guess pulled from the gap. It is anchored in a trend already visible before the reforms began,” he said.
Oyedele explained that the scorecard classified the outcomes into major improvements, structural changes and areas where Nigerians had paid a price for economic stabilisation.
“When you see from this analysis the indicators where it’s green, it means that progress has been recorded. When you see amber, it means work in progress. Good news is there’s no red,” he said.
The Minister said the government had also assessed the reforms from the perspective of ordinary Nigerians, arguing that macroeconomic reforms must ultimately translate into tangible improvements in people’s lives.
“Many people would ask why are we throwing macro data all around? GDP is growing, inflation is coming down, and they say how does that impact on the ordinary man or the average Nigerian?” Oyedele said.
He said the reforms had contributed to the regular payment of salaries and pensions, settlement of longstanding pension arrears, an increase in the minimum wage, access to student loans, cash transfers, subsidised mortgages and agricultural support.
Oyedele disclosed that 27 states that had struggled to pay salaries and pensions before the reforms were now meeting their obligations.
“In May 2023, 27 states could not reliably pay salaries. Today, that number is zero,” he said.
He stressed that the beneficiaries of the improved fiscal position were ordinary Nigerians.
“They’re not paying Americans or Europeans or foreigners. They’re not paying the rich people. They’re paying the average Nigerian who cannot put food on the table,” he said.
The Minister also highlighted the increase in the minimum wage from N30,000 to N70,000 and said the Nigerian Education Loan Fund had supported more than 1.5 million students.
He added that millions of households had benefited from cash transfers, while government interventions had also been directed at housing and agriculture.
Turning to the potential consequences of not implementing the reforms, Oyedele said the government’s counterfactual assessment suggested that the number of states struggling to pay salaries could have risen to at least 30.
“On the pre-reform trajectory, our own estimate is that at least 30 states will be in that position by now, struggling to pay salaries. That’s not a handful. That’s the majority of the federation,” he said.
He said the exchange-rate situation could also have become significantly worse.
According to Oyedele, the official exchange-rate premium over the parallel market, which had once exceeded 60 per cent, had fallen to below five per cent.
“Left on its trajectory, we project it to be above 150 per cent today,” he said.
The Minister also warned that Nigeria could have faced a severe foreign-exchange crisis, with devastating implications for the availability of fuel and other essential commodities.
“Our net external reserve was under $3 billion and we’re only over $7 billion. That’s bankruptcy,” Oyedele said while describing the danger posed by continued depletion of the country’s foreign reserves.
He argued that without the reforms, petrol could have remained officially priced at about N185 per litre but become largely unavailable.
“God forbid, you hold N3,000 and you will not find a litre. There will be scarcity everywhere,” he said.
Oyedele said the Dangote Refinery could also have faced difficulties operating under the old subsidy regime.
“Dangote Refinery would not have been able to start because you can’t sell at N200 per litre and queue up for government to pay the balance of over N1,000 per litre,” he said.
The Minister further said the government’s legacy Ways and Means liabilities, which stood at about N30 trillion before the reforms, had been curtailed instead of being allowed to more than double.
However, he acknowledged that the reforms had imposed significant costs on Nigerians, insisting that the government was not presenting an entirely rosy picture.
“A scorecard that only lists wins is not a scorecard, it’s a campaign leaflet,” Oyedele said.
He cited the increase in the Monetary Policy Rate from 18.5 per cent to 26.5 per cent as one of the costs of economic stabilisation.
“The Monetary Policy Rate has risen from 18.5 per cent to 26.5 per cent. We record that plainly as a cost of stabilisation. That’s how we recorded it, not a hidden win,” he said.
Oyedele also acknowledged the significant increase in petrol prices, which rose from roughly N185 per litre to between N1,100 and N1,400.
“Petrol at the pump has risen from roughly N185 a litre to between N1,100 and N1,400. That is a major felt cost. And I will not stand here and tell you otherwise,” he said.
He, however, argued that the counterfactual showed that maintaining the previous petrol price would not necessarily have protected Nigerians from higher costs.
“On the pre-reform paths, petrol will likely be simultaneously unavailable. It will still be N185 per litre. It will not be available at the official price, and it’s likely to be trading in the black market for at least N3,000 per litre,” he said.
On household welfare, the minister said the government considered the situation a work in progress rather than a completed success.
“Poverty and household welfare recovery is still classified in our own scorecard as unfinished business, not a victory lap,” he said.
Giving an update on key economic indicators, Oyedele said headline inflation had eased to 15.91 per cent as of June 2026, from 22.41 per cent in May 2023.
He said food inflation had also fallen from 24.82 per cent to 17.52 per cent as of June 2026, with further moderation recorded in the July figures.
The minister said gross foreign reserves had risen to $52.5 billion from about $35 billion, while net external reserves had increased from roughly $3 billion to $34.8 billion.
According to him, the stock market had also expanded from about N31 trillion in capitalisation to roughly N150 trillion, creating substantial wealth for investors.
Oyedele added that real GDP growth had strengthened to 3.89 per cent, compared with a baseline of 2.31 per cent.
He said the counterfactual assessment suggested that without the reforms, Nigeria could have been facing stagnation or recession by now.
Earlier, the Minister of Information and National Orientation, Mohammed Idris described the briefing as part of the government’s commitment to transparency and accountability, stressing that Nigerians had a right to know the financial implications of major economic decisions taken on their behalf.
